From earnings to recession fears—making sense of market volatility

And just like that, volatility made a dramatic return in the past week. While not entirely unexpected, it still sent chills throughout the markets.

A perfect storm denting market sentiment

Investors’ nerves were already frayed going into the weekend, having contended with a set of less-than-perfect tech earnings from market heavyweights, a rapidly strengthening Japanese yen that could potentially cut off an important source of market funding, and a weaker-than-expected U.S. July jobs report.

Then came news that Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, had halved its stake in Apple and boosted the firm’s cash holdings to a record $277 billion—a development that’s widely interpreted as signs that stock valuation has gotten too high and that the U.S. economic outlook has weakened.

This confluence of factors has, unsurprisingly, dented investor sentiment and translated into a sharp market sell-off. 

Q2 U.S. earnings: meeting lofty expectations proved challenging

Nearly three-quarters of S&P 500 Index companies have handed in their report cards as of August 2 and, of those, 78% came in above expectations. On a year-over-year basis, earnings growth for the quarter is tracking at around 11.8% while revenue growth may settle at around the 5.5% mark.In absolute terms, these numbers aren’t bad—but context is important.

Given the impressive run-up in U.S. stock prices coming into this earnings season, anything less than perfect—meaning a beat on the top line, bottom line, and earnings guidance—might be considered a miss. Crucially, the magnitude of the beats has been weaker.1

Digging a little deeper, we see that Q2 earnings growth is coming in roughly 4.5% above estimates (not bad), but this is below the 5-year average of 8.6%. The picture on the revenue side isn’t too different: At 1.1%, the magnitude of the upside surprise is below the 5-year average of 2.0%.1

Signs of weakness in the macro picture

July’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yielded no surprise: The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates on hold and adopted a slightly more dovish tone. July’s U.S. jobs report, however, gave investors pause: Only 114,000 jobs were created during the month, some 60,000 below estimates, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% while the average work week declined.2

When viewed in tandem with July’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which came in below expectations and hit an eight-month low, it isn’t unreasonable to wonder if the Fed may have a more difficult time engineering a soft landing in the United States than expected. It’s plausible that the Fed may now have to lower interest rates to avoid a sharper contraction in economic activity instead of cutting rates on a maintenance basis (i.e., on the back of falling inflation).

In our view, the sudden change in market sentiment could help focus minds at the Fed: The bond market has priced in a 22% chance of a 50 basis point cut at September’s FOMC meeting.2 It’s worth noting that the Fed typically lowers rates by a total of 4.25% in an average rate-cutting cycle. During that period, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls—on average—by 2.65%.2

Implications for investors

At the point of writing, U.S. Treasuries are working as portfolio diversifiers—they’ve rallied over the past few days on the back of the risk-off backdrop.3 That said, the concern here is that credit markets aren’t priced for a liquidity event. With spreads under 4%, we may see further deterioration. This is why we continue to advocate defensive positioning with a modest overweight in bonds and higher-quality bonds specifically.

On the equity side, we continue to suggest an underweight stance on riskier parts of equities such as nonprofitable small caps, growth at any price, or momentum trading. Instead, it might make sense to lean into the quality-at-a-reasonable-price theme and begin emphasizing more defensive areas of the market such as utilities and infrastructure-related assets.

We may have come to the end of the longest late-cycle period in history and could soon be moving to a recession. Markets typically herald a recession’s arrival, not the other way around. We’d look to high-yield spreads cheapening to attractive levels and changes to Fed policy before looking to add risk, and we’re keeping our eyes on U.S. small- and mid-cap stocks, U.S. credit, and non-U.S. equities. For now, though, we’re choosing to be patient.

FactSet, 8/2/24. Bloomberg, as of 8/2/24. Bloomberg, as of 8/5/24. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. The information provided does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person.

All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment or legal advice. Clients and prospects should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Neither Manulife Investment Management, nor any of its affiliates or representatives (collectively “Manulife Investment Management”) is providing tax, investment or legal advice.

This material is intended for the exclusive use of recipients in jurisdictions who are allowed to receive the material under their applicable law. The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and are subject to change without notice. Our investment teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. These opinions may not necessarily reflect the views of Manulife Investment Management. The information and/or analysis contained in this material has been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained. The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Investment Management disclaims any responsibility to update such information.

Manulife Investment Management shall not assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained here. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes, does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment approach, and is no indication of trading intent in any fund or account managed by Manulife Investment Management. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Diversification or asset allocation doesn’t guarantee a profit or protect against the risk of loss in any market. Unless otherwise specified, all data is sourced from Manulife Investment Management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This material has not been reviewed by, and is not registered with, any securities or other regulatory authority, and may, where appropriate, be distributed by Manulife Investment Management and its subsidiaries and affiliates, which includes the John Hancock Investment Management brand. Copyright 2024 by Manulife Investment Management. Manulife Securities and/or Manulife Private Wealth are using with permission. The statements and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author. Manulife Securities and/ or Manulife Private Wealth cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any statements or data.

Manulife, Manulife Investment Management, Stylized M Design, and Manulife Investment Management & Stylized M Design are trademarks of The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company and are used by it, and by its affiliates under license.

RO#3773077

Emily R. Roland, CIMA

Emily R. Roland, CIMA, 

Co-Chief Investment Strategist

Read bio
Matthew D. Miskin, CFA

Matthew D. Miskin, CFA, 

Co-Chief Investment Strategist

Read bio